Nobody beats the ecosystem

Last week, I did a post about the new war between Apple and Adobe and all the commotion that followed since Apple changed the section 3.1.1 in the license terms for developing applications to the iPhone and iPad.

Now, a week later Mike Chambers, Manager of the Adobe flash platform, posts on his blog that Adobe will stop iPhone support in future versions in Flash CS, and the guys over at Unity post on their blog that the future seems uncertain for the Unity framework (possibly the best 3D framework for the iPhone).

In various blog posts around, there’s a lot of speculation on why Apple suddenly changed the terms. Even one guy claims the Steve Jobs replied his email.

But one thing stands in the clear. Apple wants the iPhone platform for themselves. And I’m pretty sure they will get it like that. All by themselves. Alone.

Still today, no companies have created an actual business critical mobile application. And the motivation for doing so has weakened dramatically, now the cross platform paradigm has died (one application for all mobile phones). This leaves the Apple app store for small silly games and whatever you can create as a developer for kicks and fun. But it leaves no room for the enterprise that wants to build a business on mobile application technology.

So when I, as a consultant have to guide our clients in how to leverage on mobile platforms, I have to say where the money in best spend, and with a framework where your needs can grow and your business can expand. And Apple just eliminated themselves from that position.

So who is gaining from this quest? Well it’s not going to be Apple in the long term. Of that I’m certain. Adobe has no devices to sell, even though they might have the best framework in AIR 2.0. That leaves Google and Android as the only player with the strength and weight to lead the way for the ecosystem. So as long as Google does not mess it up like Apple did, it’s clear that the Android platform has the best odds and is fittest for surviving as the first choice platform for the ecosystem. Apple seems to have forgotten that choosing a “starting platform“ from where you base application is originated, isn’t hardly a business decision for a CEO. This decision is much more likely to happen within the team of developers and is driven by leaders of the ecosystem. Nobody beats the ecosystem.